Published September 20, 1990. One course I taught at the University of Wisconsin-Stout was
“The Family and the Future.” Back in the middle 1970s we tried to project what
the family would be like during the next decade.
At the time some social scientists were predicting the
demise of the nuclear family – a husband and wife living together with children.
There were many kinds of relationships some thought would replace the nuclear
family. Communal living, unstructured cohabitation (living together without a
legal marriage), and single-parent adoption of
children were among those relationships many predicted would prevail.
While these relationships are common today, they did not
become as popular as many social scientists suggested. And it is obvious that
they did not replace the nuclear family as far as popularity or the preferred
lifestyle of the majority of adults in the United States.
What about the decade ahead? What will family life be like
at the turn of the century?
Andrew Cherlin and Frank Furstenberg have written an
interesting article titled “The American Family in the Year 2000.” Unlike
others in the past, the two contemporary sociologists do not believe the nuclear
family will be replaced. Rather, they predict there will be significant changes
within the nuclear family of the future.
Cherlin and Furstenberg believe there will be diverse family
forms by the turn of the century as adults and children in the United States move
toward, away from, and then toward a nuclear family lifestyle. Three dominant
types of family will likely prevail by the year 2000: first marriages,
single-parent families, and remarriages or reconstituted families. In addition,
the two sociologists note the majority of husbands and wives in the year 2000
will be employed and living in two-income marriages.
Many family life scientists now note that the divorce rate has leveled off during the past few years. But what is not commonly reported is
that the divorce rate has leveled off at an all-time high. Slightly more than
half of all American marriages after 1980 are expected to end in divorce. Of
those who divorce, about two-thirds of the women and three-fourths of the men
are expected to remarry. The remarriage rates are slightly lower, and some
divorced men and women who do remarry are taking a longer time to do so. This
means we will have an increase in both the number of single adults and
single-parent families by the turn of the decade.
About 90 percent of single-parent families in the past
have been headed by women, but there will be an increase in the number and
percentage of such families headed by men. At the present time about one U.S.
child in four is living with just one parent. Remarriages may also become the
dominant family type of the future. In about 49 percent of current
marriages each year in the United Sates either the bride or the groom, or both,
were previously married.
Cherlin and Furstenburg conclude: “Because of the recent
sharp changes in marriage and family life, the life course of children and
young adults today is likely to be far different from what a person growing up
earlier in this century experienced. It will not be uncommon, for instance, for
children born in the 1980s to follow this sequence of living arrangements: live
with both parents for several years, live with their mothers after their
parents divorce, live with their mothers and stepfather; live alone for a time
when in their early 20s, live with someone of the opposite sex without
marrying, get married, get divorced, live alone again, get remarried, and live
alone once more following the death of their spouses.”
What do you think the family will be like in the year 2000?
I’d like to hear from you.
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